5/22/2024

May 22, 2024


Soybeans traded in the range of 2-3 cents higher during the overnight portion and then rolled higher throughout the day. The November 24 contract traded within 8 cents of its high for the month before ending the day up 5 cents. Corn shook off the weakness in wheat and played follower to soybeans and bounced around from 1-5 cents higher throughout the day. Enthusiasm on the long side of trade appeared to fade in the final hour of Wednesday's session. For now, any bullish news and headlines are priced in and we may need something new to feed the bull if we want to see December corn and November soybeans take a run at closing their upside gaps on the charts. Beginning on May 1st, this move higher in soybeans was sparked by funds offsetting chunks of a large net short position after news of torrential flooding in Brazil, now that the market has had time to evaluate what the true damage was, it’s estimated the soybean losses are only around the 3 million tonne mark. Reminder: it was less than 2 weeks ago when the USDA printed a 2024/25 soy production forecast for Brazil of 169.0 mln tonnes.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.