Grain > Commentary > 5-22-2024

5/22/2024

May 22, 2024

Soybeans traded in the range of 2-3 cents higher during the overnight portion and then rolled higher throughout the day. The November 24 contract traded within 8 cents of its high for the month before ending the day up 5 cents. Corn shook off the weakness in wheat and played follower to soybeans and bounced around from 1-5 cents higher throughout the day. Enthusiasm on the long side of trade appeared to fade in the final hour of Wednesday's session. For now, any bullish news and headlines are priced in and we may need something new to feed the bull if we want to see December corn and November soybeans take a run at closing their upside gaps on the charts. Beginning on May 1st, this move higher in soybeans was sparked by funds offsetting chunks of a large net short position after news of torrential flooding in Brazil, now that the market has had time to evaluate what the true damage was, it’s estimated the soybean losses are only around the 3 million tonne mark. Reminder: it was less than 2 weeks ago when the USDA printed a 2024/25 soy production forecast for Brazil of 169.0 mln tonnes.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
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