5/23/2022

Corn and soybeans both higher overnight to start begin the week, keying off of a late spring frost in parts of the growing region and rain continuing to disrupt planting for some of the U.S. Soybeans traded 11-15 higher out through July of 2023 but was sold-off shortly after the morning break. The USDA announced the sale of 130,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2021/22 marketing year this morning. Trade is expecting another nice bump in corn planting progress this week to narrow the gap back to average. The estimates averaged a 68% completion in corn plantings across the U.S. in a range of 63-74%. This would be +19% on the week but still behind the 5-year average of 79%. Soybean progress estimates average 49% complete for this week and range 43-55%. This would also be +19% for the week but behind the 5-year average of 55%. The progress I saw along Highway 23 from Sioux Falls to Maynard over the weekend was impressive and the forecast is mostly favorable to continue planting. Weekly export inspections were above expectations for corn with 1.699 million tonnes inspected for export. Soybean inspections totaled 576k tonnes which was mid-range of trade expectations.

Dec corn has been stuck below the 20-day moving average the past few sessions but currently rests at the bottom side of its trend channel. If we can hold into a close above this average, could see a quick return to the contract highs.

Seeing the opposite in November soybeans. Soybeans enjoyed a nice rally through the middle part of the month but are now overbought and susceptible to fund liquidation.