5/25/2023

May 25, 2023


The bears and bulls struggled to maintain direction today.  Corn and soybeans traded some nice ranges away from either size of unchanged, giving most a chance at positioning no matter their bias.  There is finally a small buzz going around the market with some concern about moisture conditions.  Funds had recently flipped short but have worked themselves closer to a neutral position as we are now one day out from an extended weekend.  The market has built a slightly bullish sentiment based solely on weather as domestic and export demand for corn continues to dwindle away.  Weekly export sales were within expectations with net cancellations for corn (75k tonnes) and wheat (45k tonnes) and net sales of 115k tonnes of soybeans.  There was a nice bump in bean meal sales with last week's sale announcement to Poland.  Marketing year to date, corn sales are short of the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 132 million bushels versus 108 million last week.  Soybean sales are short by 100 million bushels versus 71 million last week.  Actual shipment pace for corn is short by 107 mln bushels and soybean shipments are 50 million bushels ahead but the gap is shrinking.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.