5/31/2023

May 31, 2023


It feels like all grains have taken a beating over the last month, but really it is just the Soybeans that took a beating.  July corn futures were actually up 9 cents on the month.  December corn futures are slightly lower down 6 cents.  The August bean futures were down $1.44 and the November futures were down $1.17.  Basis seems to be backing off a touch as of late on both corn and beans as processors switch to the August and September futures and deal with the inverse.  We have been talking about dangerous that inverse is for a long time and it has only gotten worse.  Be careful if you have old crop left at home because there is never a good ending to an inverse.  The first crop ratings were out last night and they came up with 69% good to excellent.  The average trade guess was 71%, but the market didn't react much.  It feels like we are in the middle of a weather market, but May is just too early for a significant weather trade.      

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.