5/7/2024

May 07, 2024


Corn and soybeans take a breather after setting fresh highs for the move on Tuesday. It’s been an impressive run over the past 5 sessions with corn trading a 30-cent range and holding a 20-cent gain over that time period. July soybeans have traded a one-dollar range, netting a 90-cent gain over the same 5 days. Cash/new crop/HTA sales targets updates: July (477'0) corn and December (496'0) corn targets were within 5 cents today; new crop soybeans entered the target area today with $11.50 new crop soybeans achieved. New target for new crop is the gap on November at $12.44. Fill cash soybeans between 12.80-12.90 futures. Export inspections were on the high side of expectations for corn and soybeans last week. Corn shipments totaled 1.286 mln tonnes and soybean shipments were reported at 349k tonnes. The rally is caused by the funds off-setting a large chunk of their near-record short positions, the weather story in South America and the U.S. is just the trigger. The farmer has engaged heavily and the expected weakening on corn basis has begun. We can't even begin to count the number of growers we've been in touch with over the past week but weather markets only last as long as the weather. Keep targets in place for old crop and make sure to be selling new crop along with it.

As mentioned before, $11.50 new crop soybeans was a target and we ended the day a few cents above that. We are now looking at the area where the 62% retracement lines up with a gap on the chart. This is a large, 7-cent gap from 1237-1244. The 200-day moving average also lurks just above us at 1233.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.