Grain > Commentary > 5-8-2024

5/8/2024

May 08, 2024

Corn and soybeans were lower on Wednesday with corn down 5-8 cents and soybeans giving back 12-19.  The previous 5 days gave our futures a rally we have been waiting for since late February and pull-backs like these are necessary to keep markets healthy and long-term trends intact.  Our rally was triggered by weather stories in the U.S. and South America that forced the funds to offset large chunks of their short position.  Now, the U.S. appears to be getting a solid window for field work that opens up at the end of this week and carries well into next week.  On Friday, we will get the May WASDE report from the USDA and we will get our first look at supply and demand numbers for the 2024 crop.  Trade estimates average the 2024/25 ending stocks at 2.284 billion bushels of corn carryout and 431 million bushels of soybeans.  For corn, that estimate is "close enough" to the current year carryout to not shock the market too much but the 27% increase in soybean ending stocks is not friendly.

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3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...