6/17/2021

Trade took the bulls to the slaughterhouse today with sharp losses across the ag commodity sector.  Tomorrow, we finish the week with daily expanded price limits in corn (60 cents), soybeans (1.50), and lean hogs (4.50).  We have been expressing concern over the past couple months about how our corn market was vulnerable: big production areas catching good rains and the USDA severely understating corn acres in the March 30th planting intentions report.  The amount of old crop farmer selling across the country has also picked up, sending a signal that there is likely more unsold inventory in on-farm storage than previously thought and this may, or may not, be reflected in the June quarterly grain stocks report and will partially rely on how honest farmers filled out surveys.  Weekly export sales were light this week but within target range for old crop with 18k tonnes of corn and 65 tonnes of beans sold.  The USDA did announce a sale of 135,000 tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines for 2020/21 this morning.  Technically, we blew through several lines of support on soybeans today and this is lowest the front-month for beans has traded since Jan 25.  November beans traded below their major support level of 1242 but managed to close a dime over it.  If rain is realized this weekend, expect the bleeding to continue.