6/2/2021

Jun 02, 2021


6/2/2021
After touching limit up on Tuesday, corn trade was two-sided overnight and gave way to profit taking during the day session to finish 13 lower on the day.  Soybeans found good buying support in the forecasted weather showing record heat and little-to-no precipitation over the next 6-10 days.  Apparently, it’s only going to rain on the US corn fields?  This highly volatile, weather market trade can be frustrating, especially considering how often we hear that Brazil's bean crop continues to grow and their second corn crop continues to shrink.  Apparently, it only rained on Brazil's bean fields?  The easy-out for corn's down day was the initial corn crop rating for the year put out by the USDA, which showed a 76% good/excellent rating and only 4% poor/very poor.  Trade was expecting a 70% g/e rating but history shows that the USDA likes to tell us the crop looks good at the beginning of June.  The report also showed that we are 95% planted, 81% emerged on corn; well ahead of the 5-year averages.  Soybeans will have their first condition rating in next week's crop progress report but they were shown as 84% planted, 62% emerged; 17-20% ahead of the 5-year averages.  More estimates for corn acres planted in the June report are adding large numbers of corn acres while keeping bean acres steady.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.