6/25/2024

Jun 25, 2024


After Monday's close offered what trader's thought was something positive, those looking for a turnaround Tuesday were quickly disappointed. There was some brief 1 higher trade in corn and soybeans managed to find some green, as well, but the market turned lower as we still search for some footing. It's no secret that there is a portion of corn and soybean acres affected by flooding but it will take a couple weeks to get a real idea of what the true damage is. For now, the market is convinced that the unaffected areas can more than make up for any crop production losses. There is more rain in the forecast so what we need is something to combine with this to get the managed money and spec funds nervous and offset some short positioning (fresh demand or another production issue). Between now and the end of the year, it feels like the 2024/25 forecasted ending stocks need to shrink some. With the sharp downturn in the markets, we should have a fair amount of bearishness already baked in going into Friday's reports.

Today, July corn was within 1 cent of its very significant low back in February. On June 5, we posted a sales target of 460 July futures to close out on any remaining old crop corn left to be sold and that hit on June 13. For those still with bushels left to price, fill cash sales at anything 440’0 or better on the July or 445’0 or better on the September.

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...