6/26/2023

Jun 26, 2023


6/26/2023
There's quite a bit to unpack after a weekend that delivered some much needed rain in good quanitity across most of the grain belt. Minnesota, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, and the Dakotas all received good general rains that should carry the crop well into July, especially with temps moderating over the next week. The market was chomping at the bit following a headline that a military coup was taking place in Russia but was apparently started and done in about the time it took me to mow my lawn Saturday afternoon. Big picture: a few years of historically high prices have now created sluggish demand and a trade space dead-set on pricing the US out of the global grain space doesn't help. Some weather risk premium in the market is fine considering no one knows what the final yield number will be but sustained trade inside the top 25% of all-time values does not make sense at this point in time. Weekly export inspections missed low for corn with 543k tonnes shipped last week. Soybeans were on the low-side of expectations at 141k tonnes shipped. Shipments paces are 52 million bushels behind for corn and 33 million bushels ahead for soybeans.

Estimated weekend rainfall
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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...