Grain > Commentary > 6-28-2023

6/28/2023

Jun 28, 2023

6/28/2023
Another day of hard liquidation as rain and extended weather forecasts continue to pressure the markets.  It is probably safe to assume that funds have now flipped themselves from long to short.  We had a good rally that provided opportunity at profitable levels for the 2023 crop and think our customers did a great job making cash new crop sales and placing hedges.  In total, we handled slightly over one million bushels of 2023/24 crop during the 4-day rally.  What became evident with basis, regardless of delivery period, is that trade was more focused on supply and had almost completely forgotten about demand.  The USDA did announce the sale of 170.7k tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico this morning with 21k tonnes to be delivered in 2022/23 and 149k delivered in 2023/24.  This was the first flash sale of corn since mid-May.  Weekly ethanol data showed production unchanged at 1.05 million barrels/day and stocks increasing by 175,000 barrels to 22.98 mln bbls.  With just two months remaining in the marketing year, corn use for ethanol trails the pace to meet the USDA number by 47 million bushels.  With the sharp sell-off in futures this week, we now have room on the board for a friendly reaction to Friday's reports.

outlook.png

Read More News

3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...