6/7/2024

Jun 07, 2024


Big snap back correction in the red after Thursday's big gains across the grain complex after the bulls had nothing to challenge the 50- and 100- day moving averages in corn or soybeans. It was a quick sell-off over the past week of trade and we were due for a correctional bounce but this type of volatility (either direction) can create an unhealthy market. We don't think yesterday's move was the last gasp in the market, there's a big enough variety of dynamics to provide a little more lift, yet. There is a lot to weigh out between planted acres, prevent plant acres, South American conditions, U.S. crop conditions, and forecasted demand but to provide a clear opinion on the market, today's prices on the board are most likely better than what we will see this fall. New crop sales have been slow to build volume and export bids are nothing impressive at the moment. Our revised old crop soybean target (1200 Jul futures) hit yesterday and during last night's session before we fell sharply lower. Other targets remain unchanged.

7-day rainfall totals.

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...