7/15/2021

Jul 15, 2021


7/15/2021
Corn and soybean trade was quiet overnight and throughout the day, staying within the relatively moderate daily ranges of 10 cents in corn and 20 cents in soybeans.  A lot of focus has been on put on the sudden return of hot and dry weather to the western corn belt with most wondering if the eastern corn belt can make up for it.  In my opinion, for whatever that is worth, given the current conditions at this stage of the game, the eastern corn belt can still do that.  Out of the top five corn producing states, Minnesota is the only one trade is looking at to suffer a significant yield loss due to lack of precipitation, the other 4 are in fine shape.  NOPA soybean crush for June was reported today, posting a number of 152.41 mln bushels, well below the average trade guess of 159.48 and the low estimate of 155.5.  This was the lowest monthly volume since June of 2019.  Processors saw tighter supplies and higher raw material cost as an opportunity to perform service and maintenance.  The weekly export sales for last week didn't offer much for excitement.  Routine sales of 139k tonnes of old crop corn and 22k tonnes of old crop beans; both on the bottom side of the estimates.  New crop sales were poor with 133k tonnes of corn and 126k tonnes of wheat both below the low estimate.  New crop soybeans crept into their target range with 291k tonnes sold.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.