Grain > Commentary > 7-18-2024

7/18/2024

Jul 18, 2024

Another day of tough sledding for corn. There was some brief trade to 1 higher but we quickly went backwards into negative territory, closing just above the current contract lows. Soybeans were lower overnight and then traded steady in the 2-3 cent higher range following a nice sized sale announcement from the USDA this morning. This announcement confirmed the sale of 510,000 tonnes of soybeans and 150,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to unknown during the 2024/25 marketing year. The weekly net export sales were just below expectations for old crop corn at 438k tonnes but new crop sales were better than expected with 486k tonnes sold last week. Soybeans sales were within expectations at 360k tonnes of old crop and 375k tonnes of new crop sold. It is a positive we are finally seeing some better new crop sales on the weekly report and this morning's flash sale is a good sign that the U.S. is at competitive values globally.

A solid trend channel developing on the corn charts just above the contract lows (probably not in the direction most are hoping for). Technicals and fundamentals still show that downside risk outweighs upside opportunity.

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