Grain > Commentary > 7-2-2021

7/2/2021

Jul 02, 2021

7/2/2021
Corn and beans traded either side of unchanged evenly in 20-25 cent ranges and go into the holiday weekend predictably lower with lighter volume and profit taking after Wednesday's big move higher.  Soybeans were supported solely by the soyoil trade today.  Also adding some pressure to the market was some new light showers scattered across the grain belt in the 7-10 day forecast, meaning a big national yield is still possible.  Seasonally, we would expect markets to start downtrending after the 4th and into harvest but with a fairly tight old crop inventory and a dry western corn belt, markets have more underlying support than they normally would this time of year.  All around a really light news day with a lot of the traders out of the game for the week.  Weekly closes: cash corn 60 cents higher, new crop corn up 65 cents, cash soybeans $1.21/bu higher, new crop soybeans up $1.35/bu.  Everyone have a safe and fun 4th of July weekend and we will chat again next week!  Happy Birthday, America!

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.