7/27/2023

Jul 27, 2023


7/27/2023
Corn and soybeans were lower on Thursday with price action in corn relatively reserved, staying within a 10-cent range through most of the session. Soybeans were the risk-off move today with November completing an outside reversal lower on the chart, trading its lowest mark of the week, and ending the day down 22 cents, just below the $14 level. The USDA has been steady with 8 a.m. flash sale announcements this week. Yesterday morning, two soybean sales totaling 501,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown in 2023/24 was confirmed. This was followed up by an additional 256,000 tonnes confirmed for the same destination and timeframe this morning. The market typically assumes anything announced as "unknown" is China and the rumor today was that they were still active in the market. The weekly net export sales report did not feature any surprises. Old crop corn and soybean sales were mid-range with 314k tonnes and 199k tonnes sold. New crop sales were also mid-range with 336k tonnes and 545k tonnes sold. Not surprised to see new crop sales slow to start considering Brazil supply but demand slowly starting to pick up is a good sign.

Drought conditions remained unchanged or improved across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana through corn pollination. Combined this with the below average temps we had in July, average weather in August has a 178 bu/ac national average in play for the 2023 U.S. corn crop.

drought-monitor.png

Read More News

Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.