Grain > Commentary > 7-6-2023

7/6/2023

Jul 06, 2023

7/6/2023
A rinse-and-repeat day in terms of price action and news as corn closes Thursday higher with double-digit gains out to July 24 and soybeans finish with with 11-22 cent losses on the day. The past two days have been good, corrective moves following trade's reaction to the USDA's surprise numbers for acres in the quarterly report last week. If looking to do new crop marketing, anything over $5 delivered for corn and anything close to $13.50 for soybeans should definitely be considered as we proceed through July. Given the past couple years, it's easy to understand why corn may be perceived as "cheap" by some but, in reality, the U.S. is still in the neighborhood of a 50 cent/bu premium to Brazil. Brazil's biggest issue right now is storage and logistics. The U.S. can thank the back-log of shipments out of Brazil for bringing any type of old crop business our direction. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 8,000 barrels/day to 1.06 million bpd. Stocks were off by 719,000 down to 22.26 mln barrels.

Weather outlooks appear favorable as the grain belt nears tasseling and pollination.
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3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
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