Grain > Commentary > 7-8-2024

7/8/2024

Jul 08, 2024

A weak open last night turned into a major sell off today and the grain complex as a whole was sharply lower to start the week. Weather forecasts were seen as the explanation for the move. The eastern corn belt has been warm and dry and with Hurricane Beryl making landfall in Texas earlier today, the rains associated with that system are expected to push north into Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio where they are needed. The western corn belt has been saturated and cool since planting ended but that pattern is expected to quickly shift to hot and dry. If these forecasts materialize, it will create ideal conditions in those areas to push crops forward. Brazil's quick harvest pace is also weighing on the market. Their second crop is typically heavily exported and is seen at 63% complete (49% last week, 26% last year). Conditions in Brazil have been ideal for harvest with no major stoppages. The USDA announced the sale of 135,636 tonnes of corn for delivery to unknown this morning. This sale is split between the 23/24 and 24/25 marketing years. Weekly export inspections were as expected with 1.024 mln tonnes of corn and 273k tonnes of soybeans shipped. Shipping paces for corn and soybeans slipped slightly from last week with surpluses shipments shrinking slightly. Corn is ahead of pace by 28 million bushels (30 mln last week) and soybeans are ahead of pace by 18 million bushels (19 mln last week).

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