Grain > Commentary > 8-12-2024

8/12/2024

Aug 12, 2024

The USDA's August WASDE report gave the market more than just a snack to chew on. We are finally seeing some official numbers get hashed up after a planting season that had many wondering about acres. The report was brutal for soybeans which got hit with a double whammy in the acres and yield departments. Most notable changes: one million acres were switched from corn to soybeans and the Illinois corn crop was pegged at 225 bu/ac (203 bu/ac in 2023). Today's report balloons the forecasted U.S. soybean 2024/25 carryout by over 28% to 560 million bushels.

A fair amount of number shuffling on the U.S. corn balance sheet this month. Old crop numbers: netted a 10 million bushel decrease to the carryout. New crop side: 700k acres cut and a 75 million bushel increase to exports lower the forecasted ending stocks by 24 million bushels even after the USDA shocked with a big 183.1 avg yield for the U.S.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.