Grain > Commentary > 8-23-2021

8/23/2021

Aug 23, 2021

8/23/2021
After some big down days to finish last week, corn and soybeans found some stability on Monday.  Corn closed slightly lower but was able to trade higher for a portion of the day, garnering support from a sharply weaker dollar and Brazil corn being a premium.  Good weekend rains in the north west region of the grain belt and rumors of the EPA recommending a lower bio-fuel mandate stemmed any real momentum in corn on the day.  Soybeans improved a couple pennies today on some spillover support from crude and soybean oil.  US soybeans are currently around 50 cents/bushel cheaper than Brazil.  August sales have totaled over 90 million bushels so far and today was the first day in the past 12 that we did not see a daily export sale to China flashed.  The USDA did confirm a sale this morning, though, of 458,600 tonnes (18 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections were right in line with trade range estimates with 725k tonnes of corn and 214k tonnes of soybeans inspected.  Wheat outperformed expectations with 658k tonnes inspected for export vs the top estimate of 575k tonnes.  This past weekend's rain totaled 1.75" at the elevator in Murdock.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.