Grain > Commentary > 8-23-2023

8/23/2023

Aug 23, 2023

Dead cat bounce in corn and soybeans as the market continues to keep the bull and bears guessing and fighting for control.  Another day of hitting refresh on the same stories and headlines we've been trading for a few weeks now.  Weather, Russia/Ukraine, sluggish demand, etc.  can only be priced in so many times.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 100,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  We will have to pay some attention to yields out of Brazil as they begin to harvest their second crop corn.  It is expected to be record production.  Weekly ethanol data showed drop in production by 21,000 barrels/day, down to 1.048 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks were lowered 645,000 barrels to 22.8 mln barrels.

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5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.