Grain > Commentary > 8-23-2023

8/23/2023

Aug 23, 2023

Dead cat bounce in corn and soybeans as the market continues to keep the bull and bears guessing and fighting for control.  Another day of hitting refresh on the same stories and headlines we've been trading for a few weeks now.  Weather, Russia/Ukraine, sluggish demand, etc.  can only be priced in so many times.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 100,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  We will have to pay some attention to yields out of Brazil as they begin to harvest their second crop corn.  It is expected to be record production.  Weekly ethanol data showed drop in production by 21,000 barrels/day, down to 1.048 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks were lowered 645,000 barrels to 22.8 mln barrels.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.