Grain > Commentary > 8-23-2023

8/23/2023

Aug 23, 2023

Dead cat bounce in corn and soybeans as the market continues to keep the bull and bears guessing and fighting for control.  Another day of hitting refresh on the same stories and headlines we've been trading for a few weeks now.  Weather, Russia/Ukraine, sluggish demand, etc.  can only be priced in so many times.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 100,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.  We will have to pay some attention to yields out of Brazil as they begin to harvest their second crop corn.  It is expected to be record production.  Weekly ethanol data showed drop in production by 21,000 barrels/day, down to 1.048 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks were lowered 645,000 barrels to 22.8 mln barrels.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.