Grain > Commentary > 8-23-2024

8/23/2024

Aug 23, 2024

Corn trade was flat at 2 lower throughout a majority of the day to take us back to where we started the week.  Soybeans were 9-11 higher in what looks to be a dead-cat bounce in the middle of nowhere on the charts.  We've had an impressive run of export sales announcements this week, something we haven't seen in quite some time.  All sales announced were for the 2024/25 marketing year and totals for the week are as follows: 1,384,492 tonnes (approximately 50 million bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China, Mexico, and unknown; 242,490 tonnes (9.5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico and unknown; 105,000 tonnes of soybean meal to Vietnam.  On this surface, this series of sales may feel bullish but the truth is we need more to get us closer to average sales volumes for this time of the year.  It would not take much of a price rally to turn buyers away from U.S. grains.

Read More News

1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.