8/28/2023

Aug 28, 2023


Corn and soybeans gap higher at the Sunday night open and hold through Monday to complete gains of 5-8 cents in corn and 11-18 cents in soybeans.  That trade was fueled simply by weather forecasts.  Wheat was the lone sore spot in grains, with losses of 4-16 cents across different classes.  The USDA made two sale announcements this morning, confirming 123,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico and 296,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown, both for the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections came in above expectations for corn with 597k tonnes shipped.  Soybean inspections were midrange at 322k tonnes.  ProFarmer's final yields for their crop tour were released late Friday with 172.0 bu/ac for corn and 49.7 bu/ac for soybeans.  This would work out to 2.185 bln bu corn carryout for the 2023/24 marketing year but would create some very tight stocks for soybeans.  This rally has created some optimism going into harvest but with record production in Brazil, up-side potential is limited.  Corn has been reluctant to follow soybeans over the past 3 weeks.  While Nov soybean futures have rallied 80 cents in that timeframe, Dec corn remains virtually unchanged.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.