Grain > Commentary > 8-30-2022

8/30/2022

Aug 30, 2022

8/30/2022
An overall ugly day across the board today.  The only positive note is that corn and beans both finished well off their lows.  The Dow is down another 400 points as I am writing this, making the last 3 days losses now over 1,500 points.  Crude oil erased yesterday's big gains and then some down over $5 today.  It feels like we are in risk off mode ahead of the 3 day holiday weekend.  Weekly crop ratings for corn dropped 1 point to 54% G/E and soybeans were unchanged at 57% G/E.  Dr. Cordonnier lowered his corn yield prediction by 3 bushel to 170 bpa and noted dry conditions in areas of the western Corn Belt to blame.  We did have a soybean export sale announcement of 264,000 metric ton to Unknown for 22/23 delivery this morning.  Corn spreads widened back out a touch today.  If you are looking to roll any Dec HTA's out to the March I would have orders working at 7 cents.  Our widest point thus far is only 8 cents and if the pro farmer yield is close we might not get back to that point.  I can't stress enough that this volatility is going to continue in these markets.  Just look at beans the last few days.  We are seeing 30-40 cent ranges daily on very little news.  While this also gives opportunity in the market it also adds a lot more risk.  Buckle in and make sales that make sense for your operation.  $6.50 corn and $14.00 beans new crop levels are not a mistake.  

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.