Grain > Commentary > 8-31-2021

8/31/2021

Aug 31, 2021

8/31/2021
Corn and soybeans post another day in the red as the seasonal downtrend ahead of harvest rolls on.  The market spent today trying to assess the impact of hurricane Ida and how it affects export shipping.  The USDA's 2021/2022 export targets for corn and soybeans are already at risk of being unattainable.  Spreads have weakened to 12-15 months lows, now is an excellent opportunity to roll hedges forward ahead of harvest and grab some good carry in the market.  Dec to Mar corn spread closed at an 8-cent carry and Dec to May corn spread would pick up 12 cents.  The Nov to Jan soybean spread closed at a 7-cent carry, 2 cents off its contract low.  Today was the final day for the 2020/2021 marketing year for corn and soybeans and we closed it out with no daily export sale announcement.  It seems as though mother nature has flipped the switch and we are now in a wetter weather pattern with precipitation steadily forecasted going into September.  It wouldn't be a surprise to see risk continue to be taken off going into the long Labor Day weekend.

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3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
8/30/2024
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...