8/5/2022

We had 132,000 metric ton of beans announced to China this morning along with an additional 132,000 metric ton to Unknown.  Those were likely the rumored sales from yesterday that got the market to jump 50 cents.  Beans traded lower all day today as we buy the rumor and sell the fact.  Either way it was nice to see some China sales confirmed as it has been a while with China and US tensions on the rise once again.  IHS market (the former informa) guesses the US soy yield at 51.8bpa, while the USDA is at 51.5bpa.  For corn they droppped their yield estimate to 176.9bpa, while the USDA is at 177bpa.  The weekend observed precip and the Sunday night forecast will be very important once again this week.  That will decide how we start next weeks trade.  The central part of the corn belt is the current watch as they start to dry out.  For those of you with corn HTA's you need to start thinking about rolling the futures out or setting basis before harvest.  Corn is at an 8 cent carry to March or 12.5 cents carry to May.  I don't see it getting much wider from here.  It might not sound like a lot, but it beats playing with an inverse.  Lets cross our fingers we can catch some rain this weekend!  Have a good weekend!