9/1/2022

Sep 01, 2022


9/1/2022
Today was an ugly day in the markets once again.  Harvest is rapidly approaching and it feels like the markets are aware of that.  Wheat was the dog today down 40 in Minneapolis and 60 in Kansas City.  Equities started the day lower again, but have since clawed their way back to near unchanged on the Dow.  Crude oil was down over $3 today as that market is nearing support at the $85 area.  It might be poised to finally break below support?  The US dollar was sharply higher today, up a full point and making new highs once again at almost 110.  Thats not a good sign for exports.  The USDA export sales announcements won't happen for a couple weeks as their system remains down.  I still want to stress that if you have HTA's you want to be thinking about rolling them out as carries might be non-existent this year.  For corn, 7 cents to the march and 9 cents to the may are my targets.  It might take early harvest pressure to get there, so have orders working.  Depending on where final yields end up, it feels like some areas are going to be short corn.  Mainly the Nebraska and Kansas areas.  There is already talk of northern corn going south into feeder markets this year and we haven't even started harvest.  That has not happened for a few years and tends to change the game a bit.  There is never a dull moment in the grain business.  

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.