9/12/2022

Sep 12, 2022


9/12/2022
The USDA estimated the corn yield at 172.5 bpa, down 2.9 bushels from their August and right in line with expectations.  Harvested acres were lowered 1 million acres down to 80.8 million acres which was a bit of a surprise.  History tells us that when the USDA drops yield in September, the tendency is to drop it again before the final yield.  This change put the corn carryout at 1.219, which is in line with the estimate, but not telling the whole story.  What it is not telling you is the USDA cut corn usage by 570,000 bushel year on year.  And to go along with that the stocks to use ratio is down to 8.5%, which is getting tight.  The big surprise was in the bean market this time.  They lowered their national average yield estimate by 1.4 bushels to 50.5 bushels per acre and cut
harvested acres by 580,000 acres.  They had to lower crush down 20 million, exports down 70 million, and residual use down 3 million from last month just to keep the carryout at 200 million bushels.  That got the market to jump 76 cents today and insured the volatility is going to stick around for a while!  Keep that seat belt buckled.   

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...