Grain > Commentary > 9-14-2020

9/14/2020

Sep 14, 2020

9/14/2020
Beans made new high overnight at 10.0875 futures, but were unable to match those highs in the day session.  We had another great round of sale announcements this morning.  350,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China, 106,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan, 129,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, and 318,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown.  That is quite the list again and we will take it!  Managed funds are now net long 55,000 corn and 199,000 soybean contracts.  Weekly export sales were great once again for corn and beans, which we already knew.  Debate continues about if China needs these sales or adding to reserve in case US and China relations sour.  Crop ratings were out at 3:00 with corn down 1% at 60% good to excellent.  Beans were down 2% at 63% good to excellent.  The plant is supposed to be dying now remember, just saying.  It still feels like the right thing to do is scale up selling, because one never knows when we top out and I sure don’t want to miss out on this opportunity with soybeans.  This is a dream type level only a month ago, now it is reality.   
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.