Grain > Commentary > 9-17-2020

9/17/2020

Sep 17, 2020

9/17/2020
More sales were announced and the rumors still continue.  Grain markets broke lower about 7:00 am going into the coffee break with corn down 3 and beans down 5.  Then the 8:00 am announcements came out and confirmed some of yesterday's rumors.  264,000 MT of beans to China, 360,500 MT to Unknown, and then a dab of corn of 120,000 MT to Unknown.  Grains then battled back to near unchanged from the 8:30 open until 9:30 and then the fireworks began.  Corn put in a new high for the move as it follows beans at 3.77 December futures.  Beans put in another new high as well at 10.3225 November futures before closing about a nickel off the highs.  Selling picked up on both corn and beans today as corn hit 3.25 cash and beans broke the 9.50 cash level.  It is truly incredible how much power these funds have once they decide to play.  Just remember how fast they can change their mind.  Continue to make sales on the way up, so we don't miss the boat.  I am not sure I can say that enough at this point.  This is a risky business to say the least, so make sure you’re doing what’s best for your business. 
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.