Grain > Commentary > 9-21-2020

9/21/2020

Sep 21, 2020

9/21/2020
Today was correction day.  Corn and beans traded slightly lower on the overnight, but trended lower the entire day.  It feels like this correction was overdue and a setback here is rather healthy for the markets.  $10.00 November futures is likely in the cards this week as we will see our first real week of harvest pressure.  Weather looks ideal for harvest for the next 14 days as we remain above normal on temps and below normal on moisture.  The 3:00 ratings had corn up 1% good to excellent and beans unchanged.  Corn is 8% harvested and beans are 6% harvested.  The USDA announced 132 mt US soybean to China, 171 mt US soybean to unknown and 132 mt US soybean to Pakistan. The Dow was down nearly 1,000 points at the time of the grains close, but has closed down 500. 
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.