9/23/2022

Sep 23, 2022


9/23/2022
Outside markets weighed heavy on grains today.  The DOW traded near 800 points lower, crude oil traded over $5/bbl lower, breaking below some long-term support, and the dollar index continued a historic rally, trading 1.6 points higher around 1:00 this afternoon.  Most market spaces suffered steep losses on the day.  Corn and soybeans struggled to trade at unchanged on the overnight open and were sold-off hard at 8:30 this morning following the coffee break.  Trade made an attempt to bounce off of this morning's lows but recovery was limited and trade faded after the mid-day point into the weekend.  December corn lost 1 cent and November soybeans were down 23 on the week.  While we do not like seeing markets hit this hard in a single day, it is what is needed to help generate fresh demand for U.S. grains.  Further correction is likely needed as we are still at a premium to South America with the U.S. standing on the shore of a fresh new crop supply.  There were no official USDA reports or export sales announcements today and news was limited within the grains.  Early soybean harvest has finally made its way into our area with some new crop soybeans already being delivered.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.