Grain > Commentary > 9-24-2021

9/24/2021

Sep 24, 2021

9/24/2021
A very quiet day of trade with corn trading inside a 4-cent range and soybeans within an 11-cent range.  Funds and managed money remain sidelined while most are evaluating their position going into next week where the USDA will release the quarterly grain stocks report on Thursday.  Trade has steadily consolidated since the September WASDE report and the grain stocks report will provide us with a much-needed set of fresh fundamentals to trade and give our market some direction.  There was very limited news to trade this week and I expect we remain neutral/lower to start next week, barring any surprises.  Weekly close for corn is 6 higher and soybeans improved 4 cents on the week.  New crop basis remains historically strong going into the weekend and we recommend setting basis for hedged corn that will be delivered during the new crop period.  Murdock will be loading a soybean train tomorrow, September 25, and will be unable to receive corn for the day.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.