Grain > Commentary > 9-9-2022

9/9/2022

Sep 09, 2022

9/9/2022
Corn and soybeans were higher from the start of overnight trade and finish Friday with double-digit gains.  It appeared that there was not much of a live hand active in trade today and computers were trading between in each other.  With corn returning to recent highs in such poor volume, remaining upside now feels very limited following Monday's WASDE report, unless we get some surprise numbers to feed the bull.  We have not had a weekly export sales report since the USDA switched to a new report format nearly a month ago.  The USDA finally announced today that they would release four weeks of sales data on September 15, split into two separate reports.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 104,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Taiwan during the 2022/23 marketing year this morning.  There is a lot of buzz surrounding a potential railroad strike.  If a shutdown does happen, how much grain will need to be shifted to barge and truck freight?  Will we be able to recover from any lost shipping time?  We had a nice general rainfall overnight to help push soybeans into the finish.  Trade is expecting the USDA to reduce its yield forecast for this year's crop from 51.9 bu/ac to 51.4 b/a in Monday's report.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.